I was in for a bit of a surprise this evening. I decided to model one of my stocks in 'advanced' mode to see what would happen, and I actually came up with a system that outperformed the one I had already been trading from for the entire year. I started by going to 'new' then choosing my old friend MTG and naming it 'MTG ADVANCED'. I left the history download at 366 days, but changed the model to 'advanced mode'.
After hitting 'next' the screen asked me to choose the expected market behavior which offered me chaotic, fast normal, slow normal, inert, and very inert. I chose 'slow normal'. This is really a setting that is based on how you feel the current market is behaving, and I felt that slow normal was appropriate. At the bottom it asked me for 'nosiness' or the filtration level desired which I set at 2. I am not really sure what this meant, but I am sure it has something to do with the offset of unusual movements in the stock.
After hitting 'next' another screen asked me for the dominant trading strategy I would be using. I could choose speculative, short term buy and sell, or investment buy and hold. I picked investment buy and hold. I was then asked for the desired frequency of signal which I set at 1 bar.
After hitting 'next' I was asked about the modeling complexity and genetics implementation. I picked 'manual' so I could se the 'genetics' myself which I set at 4 layers with 60 neurons per level.
Next, I was asked about back testing which I said no to, as per my prior experience with back testing, so I set it to use all of the available data.
Then I got to the finished screen
After that a chart popped up, and I just went to the bottom right and hit 'OK'
Then I was asked if I wanted to start the learning process, and I hit 'yes'
When all was finished I ended up with a system that was much better than any of the 5 I had run earlier this year. Much more gross profit, and with a couple more trades, all still with the winning percentage of 100%.
So now I am going to start using advanced mode more. I should have explored it sooner. This endeavor has turned out to be a learning tool for myself also. I hope I can be of more help going forward.
Have a great day,
Roger
Hi Roger,
ReplyDeleteGot here via the last Webinar. I've played with Neuromaster in the past but I seem to have a better understanding now. I have not done real trades using it yet. Still testing. I'll be following your blog.
Have you experimented with ETFs as opposed to single stocks?
Thanks,
Harry from Cincinnati OH area
I graduated from Fairfield HS in 1980, so t is good to hear from a fellow Cincinnati person! I have done EFT's in the past, and they work the same way as stocks do in the software. In fact, during the 'market correction' those years back, I was fond of inverse EFT's. Because of market direction movements, I use only a year of historical data to model with. This is sufficient enough for me to make sure I am getting the most recent market action. At least that is my opinion. EFT's appear to work as well as stocks in the software. Thanks for your comment.
ReplyDeleteRoger